Estimation can be a joy...
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Counting the sweeties in the sweetie jar
For all the talk of complexity on PAETORO's website, some things we do as Geoscientists are actually quite simple. After all, in determining a chance of success, we are really seeking only five things - 1) a respectable amount of mature source rock, 2) a migration route, 3) a decent reservoir rock, 4) a sealing unit, and 5) a trapping geometry present since migration. How hard can it be?
Equally, volumetrics isn't that hard surely? We want the size of the sponge, the amount of holes it has, what's in them, and what's going to happen when we squeeze it. How hard can that be? Sometimes it is easy, and we can over-science things with our cool tools if we aren't careful. There are for example times when a good deterministic case is more appropriate than lots of fancy probabilistic ones. Equally though, the reality - of course - is that it can be very hard. There is no shortage of complexity which both the risking and volumetrics can throw at us. Fault compartments, stratigraphic compartments, multiple reservoirs and source rocks, different phases and contacts, depth conversion uncertainties in geometry, these are just a few examples. Even when we recognise key inputs, what is a sensible range and distribution? Fixing mid cases and high cases can often be intuitive, but what is a sensible minimum case? |
It doesn't stop there. There is also the relationship between different accumulations and prospects, and different models. Once you throw in risk dependencies, multiple scenarios, and clusters of dependent prospects for consolidation, complexity can rapidly become overwhelming. Keeping it simple is often good advice, but there is such a thing as too simple when there are genuine complexities. Often the trick is which knowing which bits of complexity to worry about and which not to. Who cares if your porosity range is 2% out if you've neglected three possible fault compartment volumetric scenarios and only looked at one! It may be that hitherto-neglected high-risk high-reward compartment that really does make a real difference.
Resource integrity
The industry historically is not bad at risking, but tends to overestimate resource. Being realistic about low cases and distribution range in general is a big part of that. What a client does with Paetoro analysis is their business, but our job is to give the client an informed and honest view of resource - to best inform investment decisions, regardless of the implications for further contract work. A long term reputation for effective evaluation matters more to Paetoro than short term gain.
I've worked with @risk, Crystal Ball, GeoX, Rose, and REP software, and I have worked with Earthworks Reservoir utilising their HIIP software (see link below), for geostatitiscal and mutiple scenario depth conversion treatment. As well as having Crystal Ball and RE Toolkit software to assist with volumetrics, I have my own excel templates for special cases including rock physics risking, dependencies with GeoX, and probabilistic source volumetrics and probabilistic prospect resources (both oil and gas). If you need some number crunching done, or QC'ed, with 20 plus years of geological experience attached, don't hesitate to get in touch.
Resource integrity
The industry historically is not bad at risking, but tends to overestimate resource. Being realistic about low cases and distribution range in general is a big part of that. What a client does with Paetoro analysis is their business, but our job is to give the client an informed and honest view of resource - to best inform investment decisions, regardless of the implications for further contract work. A long term reputation for effective evaluation matters more to Paetoro than short term gain.
I've worked with @risk, Crystal Ball, GeoX, Rose, and REP software, and I have worked with Earthworks Reservoir utilising their HIIP software (see link below), for geostatitiscal and mutiple scenario depth conversion treatment. As well as having Crystal Ball and RE Toolkit software to assist with volumetrics, I have my own excel templates for special cases including rock physics risking, dependencies with GeoX, and probabilistic source volumetrics and probabilistic prospect resources (both oil and gas). If you need some number crunching done, or QC'ed, with 20 plus years of geological experience attached, don't hesitate to get in touch.